2026-2028 immigration levels plan
What to Expect in Canada’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan
The federal government of Canada is gearing up to unveil its next three-year migration forecast – the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s (IRCC) Immigration Levels Plan for 2026–2028.
By November 1, 2025, the department will publish new targets for both permanent and temporary residents, laying out how many newcomers Canada aims to admit and integrate in the coming years.
A Changing Landscape: Why the Plan Matters
Canada’s multi-year immigration frameworks map out admissions targets across categories, including economic immigrants, family reunification, refugees/humanitarian cases, and temporary entrants (students and workers). These plans also reflect overarching policy goals such as labor market alignment, regional settlement, infrastructure capacity, and demographic planning.
The upcoming 2026-2028 Plan is especially significant because it will build off the 2025-2027 Plan – the first such plan to embed temporary-resident targets, not just permanent ones.
In short, Canada’s immigration policy is shifting from “grow fast” to “grow sustainably,” and how the government sets its numbers will send signals to immigrants, provinces, employers, and service providers.
Key Trends Likely to Shape 2026–2028
1. Permanent Resident Visas - Towards a “Stabilized” Level
Canada’s target for permanent residents (PRs) is expected to remain around a level that does not exceed roughly 1 % of the country’s population annually. With Canada’s population estimated at approximately 41.65 million as of July 1, 2025, that suggests an upper-bound near 416,500 admissions. In previous plans:
- The 2025-2027 Plan set targets of 395,000 for 2025; 380,000 for 2026; and 365,000 for 2027.
- The earlier 2024-2026 Plan had aimed higher, for example, 500,000 for 2026.
Thus, for 2026–2028, we can reasonably expect:
- An estimate of ~416,500 PRs between 2026- 2027 if the government sticks to the “below 1% of population” promise.
- Possibly modest declines or stabilization in PR targets, rather than large increases.
Implications:
- A stable or slightly reduced intake of PRs can ease pressure on housing, infrastructure, and social services.
- Economic-stream immigration (skilled workers, trades, French-language proficiency) will remain key. In the 2025-2027 plan, economic immigrants comprised approximately 62 % of PR admissions by 2027.
- Family reunification and humanitarian streams will continue, but might see less aggressive growth.
2. Temporary Residents: A Stronger Focus and New Limits
For the first time in recent years, the 2025-2027 Plan set clear targets for temporary residents (students + temporary workers) to bring their numbers to below 5 % of Canada’s total population by the end of 2026.
Key figures from the 2025-2027 plan:
- Temporary resident arrivals: 673,650 in 2025; 516,600 in 2026; 543,600 in 2027.
- Students make up the largest share in those plans; e.g., 305,900 for students in both 2025 and 2026.
Therefore, for the 2026-2028 cohort, we expect:
- Continued downward pressure or moderation on student permit and temporary worker numbers.
- Greater scrutiny of which temporary streams feed into permanent residence, and tighter eligibility or caps on new entrants.
- Emphasis on transitions from temporary to permanent status rather than simply the inflow of new temporary entrants.
3. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) and Regional Focus
In the 2025-2027 framework, the federal target for the PNP (where provinces nominate immigrants) was cut significantly – e.g., set at 55,000 per year for 2025-2027, down from higher levels previously.
That said, many provinces and territories subsequently secured larger nomination allocations. For the next Plan period:
- We may see upward revisions of PNP targets compared with 2025 levels.
- More emphasis on regional settlement and growth outside major metropolitan hubs.
- Renewal of the province-federal dialogue to allocate nomination spaces for smaller provinces or growing regional labor markets.
4. Francophone Immigration Outside Quebec
The government has made a clear commitment to strengthen Francophone immigration outside the province of Quebec.
In the 2025-2027 Plan:
- 8.5% of all PR admissions in 2025 were to be French-speaking immigrants outside Quebec, rising to 9.5% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.
- The aim is to reach 12% by 2029.
Expect the 2026-2028 Plan to:
- Raise or sustain the Francophone share target (for example, 9.5% → 10% → 10.5% or similar).
- Introduce support measures (settlement, language programming) alongside the numerical targets.
- Prioritize programs that attract French-language speakers to smaller or rural communities.
5. The Role of the Express Entry System
Within the economic stream, the Express Entry system continues to evolve:
- New categories based on “Federal Economic Priorities” and “In-Canada Focus” have appeared in recent plans.
- For instance, the target for Federal Economic Priorities was 41,700 in 2025, increasing to 47,400 in 2026.
Looking ahead, we may see:
- Further segmentation of Express Entry by occupation (e.g., healthcare, trades, technology).
- Prioritization of candidates already working or studying in Canada (“in-Canada focus”).
- Possible new streams targeting innovation leadership or French-language skills.
Key Questions for the Upcoming Plan
The commitment suggests yes, but actual numbers will reveal how strictly it is enforced.
With pressure to bring the share below 5% of the population, will student and worker permit caps tighten further?
Provinces may argue for greater allocations reflecting regional labor and demographic needs.
In particular, under Express Entry or provincial nomination, emphasizing skills, region, and language.
Housing, healthcare, and labor market absorption remain critical constraints. Reports flagged risks of population decline and housing gaps under previous levels.
Implications for Stakeholders
Prospective Immigrants:
- Competition for limited spaces may increase; those already working or studying in Canada might have an edge.
- Francophone speakers and skilled workers in priority sectors may have favorable prospects.
- Temporary status holders should monitor transition pathways to PR carefully.
Provinces & Territories:
- Opportunities exist to negotiate increased nomination allocations under PNP programs.
- Regions may benefit from targeted Francophone settlement or niche labor-market migration.
- Infrastructure planning (housing, services, labor) will be as vital as immigration quotas.
Employers and Labor Market Players:
- Skills shortages remain, but immigration targets may not surge to fill every gap - strategic alignment will matter.
- Firms may need to lean more on the retention of workers already in Canada rather than relying primarily on external recruitment.
Policy & Service Providers:
- With lower volumes or stabilized flows, resource planning (settlement services, language training, integration support) can be more predictable.
- Monitoring of temporary-to-permanent transitions will become increasingly important.
Important Changes in Immigration Policy
The newly released Immigration Levels Plan doesn’t simply outline numbers- it is a calculated change in the way Canada goes about balancing the economy, demographics, and social goals. Some significant changes stand out, and they all have considerable implications for future immigrants.
1. Percentage Reduction of Temporary Resident Population
Surplusing is one of the government’s key objectives, and it is focused on reducing the share of temporary residents among the population of Canada currently. Temporary residents currently make up roughly 7% of the population, and the strategy aims to bring it down to 5% by the end of 2026.
This step is a sign of growing concern over the impact of short-term residents on rental vacancy shortfalls, utilization of the health system, and provincial demands for infrastructure. By providing a particular numerical limitation, Canada hopes to better manage growth while providing those who immigrate with doors opening to permanent residency or other sustainable options, rather than remaining indefinitely within short-term limbo.
Metro Areas Now Ineligible for Low-Wage LMIA Applications
The following Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) now fall under the exclusion list due to jobless rates exceeding the 6% threshold:
| Family Size | Minimum Required Funds (Annual) |
|---|---|
| 1 person (student only) | CAD $22,895 |
| 2 people | CAD $28,502 |
| 3 people | CAD $35,040 |
| 4 people | CAD $42,543 |
| 5 people | CAD $48,252 |
| 6 people | CAD $54,420 |
| 7 people | CAD $60,589 |
| Additional family member | CAD $6,170 |
These figures represent a significant increase from the earlier requirement of CAD $20,635 for a single applicant, which had been in effect since January 1, 2024.
Looking Ahead
When the 2026-2028 Plan is released, the numbers themselves will matter less than the underlying signals: which streams are growing, which are shrinking, and how the government is prioritizing settlement, region, and skills.
Canada appears to be shifting from high-volume immigration towards a more calibrated, strategic intake – one that balances labor market needs, infrastructure capacity, and community integration. For anyone watching Canada’s immigration policy, the next Plan will offer a window into how the country intends to shape its demographic and economic future.
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